An Entropy Flow Dynamic Model for Low-Carbon Transition of Integrated Energy Systems

The integrated energy systems exhibit complex nonlinear dynamic interactions between internal resources and external society. Analyzing the dynamic process of integrated energy systems evolution is a pivotal scientific problem for determining its developmental stages. This study is based on dissipative structure theory and entropy flow principle, aiming to assess the stability of the energy-carbon dynamic evolution trajectory within integrated energy systems. By examining the dissipative structural characteristics of integrated energy systems and applying the fundamental principles of classical and non-equilibrium thermodynamics, an entropy flow model is established for low-carbon transition of integrated energy systems. Finally, the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model based on system dynamics is simulated as a case study to verify the practical effect of the policy portfolio in the low-carbon transition.