A Forecast for Sustainable Critical Mineral Supply Chain for Electric Vehicles Manufacturing in Indonesia and Australia

There has been a conversation about developing electric vehicle industries in Indonesia and Australia. While many studies have identified the barriers and opportunities for developing the industry, limited studies have been conducted to estimate the demand and supply of critical minerals to produce electric vehicle batteries, particularly in Indonesia. This study investigates the future demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt in Indonesia and Australia by considering multiple scenarios and technological options. The study highlights the importance of circular economic intervention, such as material substitution and recycling, to ensure a sustainable supply of these minerals. The result shows that the lithium, nickel, and cobalt reserves will be adequate for developing the domestic electric vehicle industry in Australia. The domestic production will consume between 0.4 per cent and 4.5 per cent of the available reserve. In Indonesia, domestic production will consume up to 1.2 per cent of the available nickel reserve. However, it will consume more than a quarter of cobalt reserve in a scenario where high-nickel cathode dominates the market. Indonesia might also need to import lithium. Therefore, the result emphasises the need to foster bilateral cooperation between Indonesia and Australia to develop a secure and resilient electric vehicle industry in the region. The study concludes that a multifaceted approach, including technological and policy advancement in sustainable consumption and production practices, is essential to mitigate climate change in these countries.