Research on the Dynamic Balance Strategy for Power Grid Infrastructure Investment Considering Multiple Disturbances

With the advancement of power grid development and power system reform in China, grid infrastructure investment projects face diverse disturbances and regulatory challenges. To ensure investment balance, this paper proposes a comprehensive risk early-warning and mitigation technology. First, based on historical data of power grid infrastructure management indicators and Monte Carlo simulations, a comprehensive threshold-setting method is proposed to represent the deviation of management indicators from their normal values. Multi-level early-warning intervals are designed for each management indicator, and differences in the performance of these indicators across different time points and voltage levels are considered. Multi-level early-warning intervals are established to assess the risk level of projects, thereby constructing a dynamic early-warning mechanism for balancing power grid infrastructure investment. Secondly, potential disturbance factors throughout the entire investment process and their associated management indicators are considered. Risk mitigation strategy libraries adaptable to flexible disturbance scenarios are established at both the grid and project levels. A mixed-integer linear optimization model is developed with the objectives of minimizing both the reduction of project risk levels and the economic cost of mitigation measures. The model's constraints include the warning levels of management indicators, the risk levels of projects, the number of risk mitigation measures, and the total cost. This allows for dynamic optimization of the entire power grid infrastructure investment process. Finally, a quantitative analysis of investment balance is conducted using the historical projects of a provincial company, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed strategy in reducing project risk levels.