A Polynomial Chaos Expansion-Based Reserve Capacity Optimization Method Considering Reliability

Reserve is a crucial resource for addressing power imbalances caused by uncertainties, thereby enhancing reliability. The inherent uncertainty in reserve stems from the unpredictable nature of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and photovoltaic output randomness, load fluctuations). Consequently, within the range of global uncertainty in the reserve allocation process, it is challenging to quantify quickly and accurately the risk. In this paper, based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), an efficient and accurate analytical characterization method for reliability is constructed, which effectively reveals the implicit correlation between high-dimensional influencing factors and reliability. Additionally, an effective reserve allocation model with embedded reliability based on the analytical formulation is proposed. The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the calculation speed while ensuring the calculation accuracy, providing a practical and valuable optimization solution for the reserve allocation problem.