Reliability Assessment of Integrated Energy System Considering Gas and Thermal Pipeline Leakage Failure

The tight integration within integrated energy system (IES) leads to enhanced energy efficiency. However, the intricate interactions among diverse energy subsystems have the potential to undermine the reliability of energy supply. In the reliability assessment (RA) of IES, traditional models have difficulty in considering issues such as the reduction of pipeline transmission capacity caused by leakage failures in gas and thermal pipelines. Therefore, this paper analyzes the dynamic transition process among the normal operation, fracture failure, and leakage failure states of pipelines. Then, a three-state Markov state transition model for pipelines is constructed and combined with the frequency-duration method to obtain the unknown transition rates between states. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is used to sample the state duration of components, the location of leakage failures, and the size of leakage apertures. A RA method for IES considering leakage failures is established, and the impact of leakage failures on the reliability of IES is analyzed.