Analysis of Predictive Factors for Primary School Teachers' Retention Intentions

Purpose: This study examined factors predicting primary school teachers’ intentions to remain in the profession until retirement and analyzed their relative influence using empirical data. It offers evidence-based insights and practical implications for teacher retention policies. Methods: A sample of 1,054 primary school teachers from the second-year teacher data of the 2020 SELS was analyzed. A total of 193 explanatory factors were considered, including teaching-related information, professional attitudes, core competencies, school background, teacher-member relationships, and student misconduct. Random forest classification and binary logistic regression analyses were conducted. Results: First, having a career goal in educational administration was the strongest predictor, showing a significant positive impact. Second, overall job satisfaction was a key factor, with certain aspects having a positive effect. Third, intrinsic, extrinsic, and altruistic motivations for choosing teaching were predictive, with regression analysis confirming their positive influence. Fourth, burnout factors, such as reduced personal accomplishment and depersonalization, predicted retention intent, with regression results showing a significant negative relationship between reduced personal accomplishment and intent to remain. Conclusion: These findings highlight the need to support career goal-setting and professional development, along with a structured advancement model for teachers. Measures to enhance job satisfaction should include improving the profession’s social status and formalizing parental complaint procedures. Finally, maintaining the intrinsic value of teaching while fulfilling extrinsic, intrinsic, and altruistic motivations is key to encouraging long-term retention.