Power of personalized smoking cessation: A quantitative lifecycle framework for policy evaluation

Evidence suggests that smokers' responsiveness to cessation medication depends on genotypes. Whether personalized treatment based on genotypes is cost effective compared to standard treatments, however, has been unexplored. We thus construct a lifecycle model with endogenous health evolution and life expectancy and with heterogeneities in genotypes, demographics, and adolescent smoking. We examine the cost effectiveness of three intervention policies: (i) a standard policy where all smokers receive counseling and medication, (ii) a standard policy where some smokers receive counseling and others receive counseling and medication, and (iii) a personalized policy based on genotypes. The personalized policy proves the most cost effective: every dollar of program cost generates about $29 and $40 in value measured over the lifecycle for smokers treated at age 37 and 52, respectively, about 16–22% higher than the two standard policies.