A Network Analysis of the Real Estate Fluctuation Propagation Effect in the United States

Under the background of intensified global economic fluctuations, to prevent the systemic risk of real estate (e.g., the U.S. subprime crisis), this study constructs a linkage network of the real estate industry in the U.S. based on the complex network method, reveals the fluctuation diffusion mechanism, identifies the key pivotal industries through the network characteristic indicators, and analyses the characteristics of the fluctuation conduction paths by applying the industrial fundamental association trees. The study found that (1) the U.S. real estate industry is a ‘supply hub’ industry, with first-order and second-order weighted degrees of mean 6.78, 3.98, and significant asymmetry in the supply structure of the industrial network; (2) industries like architectural, engineering, and related services (541300), nonresidential maintenance and repair (230301), and electric power generation, transmission, and distribution (221100) show high degree centrality and betweenness centrality. Their strong propagation and control capabilities form real estate fluctuations’ core transmission mechanisms; (3) foundational association trees reveal long, broad propagation paths where financial investment and energy-supply sectors act as “traffic hubs,” decisively influencing risk diffusion depth and breadth. Targeted policy recommendations address four dimensions: optimizing industrial chain structures, strengthening financial risk isolation, improving housing supply systems, and enhancing policy coordination. This aims to help China avoid U.S.-style real-estate-bubble risks and achieve coordinated real estate macroeconomy development.