The low-carbon development path of the civil aviation industry based on the LEAP model

Abstract Global climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have become significant challenges requiring urgent solutions. As an energy-intensive sector, the low-carbon transformation of the civil aviation industry plays a critical role in achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals. In this study, taking China’s civil aviation industry as a case study, a multi-scenario dynamic coupling model is constructed based on the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model. Using historical data from 2000 to 2024, carbon emissions from 2025 to 2060 are quantitatively simulated and the dynamic feedback mechanisms among demand, energy, technology, and policy modules are systematically analyzed. The results indicate that under dual policy and technological drivers, especially in the scenarios of low-carbon policy and technological progress, carbon emissions in 2050 could be reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline scenario. This study provides a scientific basis for formulating precise low-carbon policies, optimizing the energy structure of civil aviation, and promoting the research and development of new aircraft.