Competitive Position, Expectations, and Managerial Approaches to Risk in National Football League Football

This paper analyzes how National Football League coaches incorporate information on competitive position and expectations of winning into fourth down decisions. Theoretically, teams should take more risk when their win probability is relatively low since additional risk broadens the distribution of possible outcomes thereby increasing the likelihood of victory. Our findings confirm this. We find that heavier favorites and teams having had higher levels of win probability within the game attempt more fourth down conversions, both on plays where attempting a play is estimated to be optimal and on plays where it is not. One possible explanation for this is coaches in those positions more likely frame their current win probability as being below a previously defined reference point, which reduces their degree of loss aversion. On balance, we find that this increased aggressiveness on fourth down improves the expected changes in win probability in this context.