Two-year-olds’ visual exploration of response options during memory decisions predicts metamemory monitoring one year later

Introspection on memory states guides decision-making, but little is known about how it emerges in childhood. Toddlers' behavioral responses to difficult memory decisions (e.g., information seeking) suggest early capacity to track uncertain situations, but it is unclear whether these behaviors relate to later emerging capacity to introspect on memory accuracy (i.e., metamemory monitoring). In a pre-registered longitudinal study, 176 25- to 34-month-olds encode images, then are asked to select the familiar image from arrays that also include a new image (Time 1). One year later (Time 2), 157 participants complete a similar memory task and report decision confidence. Higher gaze transitions between responses, indicative of evaluation processes, faster response latencies, and greater memory at Time 1 predict Time 2 metamemory monitoring (i.e., greater confidence for accurate than inaccurate decisions). At Time 2, gaze transitions are associated with lower overall confidence. Overall, this research reveals potential building blocks of emerging metamemory monitoring.