Addressing critiques refines global estimates of reforestation potential for climate change mitigation
Reforestation is a prominent climate change mitigation strategy, but available global maps of reforestation potential are widely criticized and highly variable, which limits their ability to provide robust estimates of both the locations and total area of opportunity. Here we develop global maps that address common critiques, build on a review of 89 reforestation maps created at multiple scales, and present eight reforestation scenarios with varying objectives, including providing ecosystem services, minimizing social conflicts, and delivering government policies. Across scenarios, we find up to 195 Mha (million hectares) are available (2225 TgCO<sub>2</sub>e (teragrams of carbon dioxide equivalent) per year total net mitigation potential), which is 71-92% smaller than previous estimates because of conservative modeling choices, incorporation of safeguards, and use of recent, high-resolution datasets. This area drops as low as 6 Mha (53 TgCO<sub>2</sub>e per year total net mitigation potential) if only statutorily protected areas are targeted. Few locations simultaneously achieve multiple objectives, suggesting that a mix of lands and restoration motivations will be needed to capitalize on the many potential benefits of reforestation.
Authors
- Mohammed Armani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1297-0296)
- C. A. Williams (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5047-0639)
- César Terrer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5479-3486)
- Evan C. Fricke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0520-4200)
- Kurt A. Fesenmyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0178-2297)
- Pooja Choksi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2997-5894)
- Natalia Hasler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3280-6792)
- Forrest Fleischman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6060-4031)
- Sally Archibald (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2786-3976)
- Peter W. Ellis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7933-8298)
- Joseph W. Veldman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6231-8223)
- Susan C. Cook‐Patton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7194-4397)
- Matthew E. Fagan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8023-9251)
- Erin E. Poor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8799-3193)
- Drew E. Terasaki Hart (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1832-2289)
Institutions
- University of Maryland, Baltimore (US)
- The Nature Conservancy (US)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Clark University (US)
- Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (US)
- University of the Witwatersrand (ZA)
- Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (GH)
- The Nature Conservancy (CO)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Texas A&M University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-06-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59799-8
- Citations
- 18
- Primary Topic
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 18.79
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- University of Maryland, Baltimore County
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- National Institute of Food and Agriculture