Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6

Abstract. Anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) substantially impacts climate dynamics, primarily through modifications in the surface biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) fluxes, which alter the exchange of energy, water, and carbon with the atmosphere. Despite the established significance of both the BGP and BGC effects, their relative contribution to climate change remains poorly quantified. In this study, we leveraged data from an unprecedented number of Earth system models (ESMs) of the latest generation that contributed to the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), under the auspices of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis of BGP effects indicates a range of global annual near-surface air temperature changes across ESMs due to historical LUC, from a cooling of −0.23 °C to a warming of 0.14 °C, with a multi-model mean and spread of -0.03±0.10 °C under present-day conditions relative to the pre-industrial era. Notably, the BGP effects indicate warming at high latitudes. Still, there is a discernible cooling pattern between 30° N and 60° N, extending across large landmasses from the Great Plains of North America to the Northeast Plain of Asia. The BGC effect shows substantial land carbon losses, amounting to -127±94 Gt C over the historical period, with decreased vegetation carbon pools driving the losses in nearly all analysed ESMs. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE), we estimate that LUC-induced carbon emissions result in a warming of approximately 0.21±0.14 °C, which is consistent with previous estimates. When the BGP and BGC effects are taken together, our results suggest that the net effect of LUC on historical climate change has been to warm the climate. To understand the regional drivers (and thus potential levers to alter the climate), we show the contribution of each grid cell to LUC-induced global temperature change, as a warming contribution over the tropics and subtropics with a nuanced cooling contribution over the mid-latitudes. Our findings indicate that, historically, the BGC temperature effects dominate the BGP temperature effects at the global scale. However, they also reveal substantial discrepancies across models in the magnitude, directional impact, and regional specificity of LUC impacts on global temperature and land carbon dynamics. This underscores the need for further improvement and refinement in model simulations, including the consideration and implementation of land-use data and model-specific parameterizations, to achieve more accurate and robust estimates of the climate effect of LUC.