Multi-Stakeholder Risk Assessment of a Waterway Engineering Project During the Decision-Making Stage from the Perspective of Sustainability

Serving as critical sustainable transportation infrastructure, inland waterways provide dual socioeconomic and ecological value by (1) facilitating high-efficiency freight logistics through cost-effective bulk cargo transport while stimulating regional economic growth, and (2) delivering essential ecosystem services including flood regulation, water resource preservation, and biodiversity conservation. This study establishes a stakeholder-centered risk assessment framework to enhance decision-making of waterway engineering projects and promote the sustainable development of Inland Waterway Transport. We propose a three-layer approach: (1) identifying key stakeholders in the decision-making stage of waterway engineering projects through multi-dimensional criteria; (2) listing and classifying decision-making risks from the perspectives of managers, users, and other stakeholders; (3) applying the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to prioritize key risks and proposing a risk assessment model based on fuzzy reasoning theory to evaluate decision-making risks under uncertain conditions. This framework was applied to the Yangtze River Trunk Line Wuhan–Anqing Waterway Regulation Project. The results show that the risk ranking is managers, users, and other stakeholders, among which the risk of engineering freight demand is particularly prominent. This suggests that we need to pay attention to optimizing material transportation and operational organization, promote the development of large-scale ships, and realize the diversification of ship types and transportation organizations. This study combines fuzzy reasoning with stakeholder theory, providing a replicable tool for the Waterway Management Authority to address the complex sustainability challenges in global waterway development projects.