Photovoltaic Power Estimation for Energy Management Systems Addressing NMOT Removal with Simplified Thermal Models

For energy management systems, it is crucial to determine, in advance, the available energy from renewable sources to be dispatched in the next hours or days, in order to meet their generation and consumption goals. Predicting the photovoltaic power output strongly depends on accurate weather forecasting data and properly photovoltaic panel models. In this context, several traditional thermal models are expected to become obsolete due to the removal of the widely used Nominal Module Operating Temperature parameter, stated in the IEC 61215-2:2021 standard, according to reports of longer time periods in test data processing. The main contribution of the photovoltaic power estimation algorithm developed in this paper is the integration of an accurate procedure to calculate the hourly day-ahead power output of a photovoltaic plant, based on three simplified thermal models in steady state. These models are proposed and evaluated as remedial alternatives to the removal of the Nominal Module Operating Temperature parameter—a subject that has not been widely addressed in the related literature. The proposed estimation algorithm converts specific Numerical Weather Prediction data and solar module specifications into photovoltaic power output, which can be used in energy management applications to provide economic and ecological benefits. This approach focuses on rooftop-mounted mono-crystalline silicon photovoltaic panel arrays and incorporates a nonlinear translation of Standard Test Conditions parameters to real operating conditions. All necessary input data are provided for the analysis, and the accuracy of experimental results is validated using appropriate error metrics.