Temporal analysis of Phoma leaf spot of coffee plants at different altitudes

Phoma leaf spot (Phoma spp.) of coffee causes losses of between 15 and 43%, and presents significant variability over time and space, especially in mountain coffee production. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the behavior of this disease at different altitudes and to use time series techniques and regression models to explain disease behavior. The experiment was conducted over two years (from September 2013 to August 2015) with monthly evaluations in a Coffea arabica L. plantation. The incidence and severity progress curves showed irregular behavior most of the time, typical of the disease. Higher altitudes provided higher disease incidence and severity values. Only the incidence and severity progress curves at the altitude of 1143.2 m showed significant autocorrelation over time. Thus, the first-order autocorrelation structure, AR(1), was incorporated in the estimates of the parameters of the linear and nonlinear models. Only the months from February to June/July 2014 were considered, when the disease progressed regularly. The rates obtained for the incidence, overall mean of the 85 points and mean altitude of 1143.2 m, were 5.2 and 4.6%, respectively, while the estimated rates for the severity data under the same conditions were 0.3 and 0.1%, respectively. These values represent the expected increase in incidence and severity each month. The Phoma leaf spot presents complex temporal dynamics, influenced by microclimatic variables associated with altitude.