POPULATION CHANGES AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN NIGERIA: A PARSIMONIOUS ECM APPROACH

This study examined population changes and environmental quality in Nigeria. The study basically covered a period of 32years (1986 – 2019). The study made use of annual time series data collected from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Stationarity of the series was determined using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), unit root, long-run relationship was determined with the JohansenCointegration while the short run model estimation was carried out with the use of the Parsimonious Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The result showed that a long run relationship exist among the variables while the ECM showed that the speed of adjustment in event of a perturbation or disequilibrium for air, sanitation and water quality was approximately 147percent, 84.6percnt and 63.9 percent respectively. The result showed that the coefficients of both current and past period values of rate of urbanization (RUB), urban population (UPOP), rural population (RPOP), and working population (WOKP) all had inverse and significant impact on air quality (AIQ), sanitation quality (SANQ) and water quality (WAQ). On the other hand, both current and past period values of industrial growth (ING) and net export (NEXP) had direct relationship with AIQ, SANQ and WAQ. It was concluded that increase in the rate of urbanization, working age population, urban and rural population can bring about depletion in air, sanitation and water quality in Nigeria. It was recommended that the Ministry of Environment (MoE) should endeavour to increase the awareness of citizens on population check and the dangers of various human activities that could be injurious or harmful to air, water and environmental resources. This can be achieved by increasing public campaign in local languages to make communication effective to both the educated and uneducated.