A Probabilistic Approach to the Nitrate Risk Assessment of Groundwater in Intensively Farmed Region of Southeast Türkiye

This study aims to assess the spatial distribution and health risk potential of nitrate (NO3−) contamination in groundwater resources of the Harran Plain, a semi-arid agricultural region in Southeastern Türkiye. Groundwater samples were collected from 20 locations during pre- and post-irrigation periods and analyzed for a range of hydrochemical parameters. A probabilistic risk assessment framework, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines, was employed to evaluate non-carcinogenic health risks across different demographic groups. The integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), multivariate statistical analyses, and Monte Carlo simulation enabled a comprehensive evaluation of exposure scenarios and contributing factors. This research contributes to the scientific understanding of groundwater vulnerability in intensively farmed areas, provides a decision-support framework for water quality management, and emphasizes the importance of protecting sensitive populations in nitrate-affected regions.