Disentangling the Channels of Impact of the Ukraine War on Global Food Markets: An Integrated Scenario Approach

Abstract The war in Ukraine has major implications for the world's agricultural and food markets, as the Black Sea region is a large supplier of crops and fertilizers. Impacts of the war are further exacerbated by the sanctions against Russia, spillover effects from disruptions of other commodity markets, adverse weather events and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. In this paper, using a comprehensive modeling framework, we decompose the impacts across various channels and show that the cumulative effect of the considered indirect spillovers is even more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. Our results also suggest that the benefits of proactive trade policies, such as the implementation of trade facilitation measures and the reduction of import tariffs on agricultural and food commodities, are much more substantial than the adverse impacts of the war and other disruptions. Such trade policies would boost agricultural trade, increase overall food availability and lead to the higher integration of agricultural and food commodities into the global value chains, making food systems more resilient to potential future shocks.