A Semi-Analytical Dynamic Model for Ground Source Heat Pump Systems: Addressing Medium- to Long-Term Performance Under Ground Temperature Variations

As the demand for sustainable heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) solutions rises, ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) offer high efficiency but are sensitive to subsurface thermal dynamics. The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of ground temperature variations on GSHP performance by proposing a semi-analytical dynamic model capable of simulating medium- to long-term heat pump operations. The proposed model accounts for the interactions between the ground heat exchanger (GHE) and the heat pump. A case study using the proposed model demonstrates how ground temperature variations from external factors affect the coefficient of performance (COP) and the heating and cooling capacity of GSHP systems. For ±5 °C ground shifts, the heating capacity falls below peak demand if the subsurface temperature drops by more than 2 °C, requiring supplemental heating. Peak cooling and capacity vary by less than 1% and 3% for every unit of ground temperature change (°C), respectively. These results quantify both the resilience and limits of GSHP sustainability under realistic thermal disturbances.