Carbon Price Forecasting and Market Characteristics Analysis in China: An Integrated Approach Using Overall and Market-Specific Models

Carbon markets play a pivotal role in achieving carbon peaking targets, with accurate price forecasting being essential for effective policymaking and corporate decision making. This study develops an integrated forecasting framework, combining an overall market model and a market-specific model, to predict carbon price trends in China from 2025 to 2026, while examining inter-market heterogeneity across eight regional markets. The overall market forecast reveals a fluctuating upward trend in the national carbon price over the next two years. Market-specific forecasts highlight significant disparities in price trends, as follows: the Shanghai and Guangzhou markets are projected to experience faster growth and the Beijing market to maintain stable prices, while the Tianjin and Chongqing markets exhibit more moderate increases. These disparities reflect the profound influence of regional economic levels, policy enforcement, and market maturity on carbon market development. By incorporating seasonal fluctuations and stochastic disturbances, we construct a forecasting model aligned with historical data dynamics and achieve differentiated forecasts through the analysis of historical price levels across markets, addressing the limitations of uniform target pricing in prior studies. These findings offer actionable insights for carbon market participants and policymakers, providing a robust foundation for designing differentiated carbon pricing policies to support China’s carbon peaking objectives.