Mapping Delayed Canopy Loss and Durable Fire Refugia for the 2020 Wildfires in Washington State Using Multiple Sensors

Fire refugia are unburned and low severity patches within wildfires that contribute heterogeneity that is important to retaining biodiversity and regenerating forest following fire. With increasingly intense and frequent wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, fire refugia are important for re-establishing populations sensitive to fire and maintaining resilience to future disturbances. Mapping fire refugia and delayed canopy loss is useful for understanding patterns in their distribution. The increasing abundance of satellite data and advanced analysis platforms offer the potential to map fire refugia in high detail. This study uses the Bayesian Updating of Land Cover (BULC-D) algorithm to map fire refugia and delayed canopy loss three years after fire. The algorithm compiles Normalized Burn Ratio data from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 and 9 and uses Bayes’ Theorem to map land cover changes. Four wildfires that occurred across Washington State in 2020 were mapped. Additionally, to consider the longevity of ‘durable’ fire refugia, the fire perimeters were analyzed to map delayed canopy loss in the years 2021–2023. The results showed that large losses in fire refugia can occur in the 1–3 years after fire due to delayed effects, but with some patches enduring.