Econometric analysis of earthquake impacts on tourism mobility in Türkiye

Unlike other sectors, the tourism sector can be easily affected by negative events due to its nature. Earthquake, one of the risks brought about by its geography in Türkiye, has affected the tourism sector in the past and may affect it in the future. Based on the 2023 earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, this study aims to understand the impact of earthquakes on tourism demand. To provide a comprehensive view, the research analyzes data from earthquakes in Elazığ, İzmir, and Kahramanmaraş over the last three years. The research utilizes accommodation facility data by Türkiye Republic Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Using an econometric model, the change in the number of overnight stays as a result of earthquakes is analyzed. This study contributes by being among the first to quantitatively assess the impact of earthquake-related events on tourism demand in Türkiye. Based on the research findings, it has been determined that the impact of earthquakes on tourism activity is less significant compared to the pandemic. The earthquakes that occurred affected the participation of foreign visitors in tourism activities more than domestic visitors. The uniqueness of the research is that it is among the first studies to try to measure the change in tourism demand as a result of negative events based on earthquakes in Türkiye.