Lachesis: Predicting LLM Inference Accuracy using Structural Properties of Reasoning Paths

Large Language Models are increasingly used to build agents to perform more complex tasks. As LLMs perform more complicated reasoning through longer interactions, self-consistency, i.e., the idea that the answer obtained from sampling and marginalising a number of multiple independent inferences is more likely to be correct, has been received much attention as a simple validation technique. This paper aims to empirically verify this intuitive hypothesis by predicting the correctness of answers obtained using self-consistency from properties of the samples of reasoning paths. We introduce Lachesis, a predictive model for self-consistency based LLM inferences, and empirically evaluate it using AutoFL, a recently proposed LLM-based fault localisation technique, as the target technique that uses self-consistency. Lachesis converts collected reasoning paths from AutoFL using specifically designed reasoning path representations, and trains LSTM and GCN models to predict whether a given set of reasoning paths would result in a correct answer. The results suggest that Lachesis can predict the correctness of answers with a precision of up to 0.8136, highlighting the possibility of training a predictive model that can allow early termination of inferences that are not likely to be successful.