The Role of the Belt and Road Initiative in Advancing Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Pakistan

This study examines the impact of Chinese foreign direct investment and infrastructure development on sustainable food security in Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Using annual data from 1985 to 2022, it applies Vector Autoregressive and dynamic ARDL models to explore both short- and long-run relationships among key variables such as infrastructure, governance, exchange rates, and trade. Unit root tests confirm the data’s stationarity after first differencing. ARDL bounds testing reveals strong long-term links, showing that a 1% rise in Chinese FDI and infrastructure improves food availability by approximately 0.13%–0.21% and 0.16%–0.24%, respectively. Governance and exchange rate stability are also found to significantly enhance food security outcomes. The error correction terms suggest a gradual return to equilibrium, with adjustments occurring at a rate of 9%–27% annually. Overall, the findings underscore that foreign investment and infrastructure development are key drivers of food availability, offering valuable policy insights for advancing food security and achieving sustainable development goals.