What is the future for The Martes Complex (Guloninae) in the face of climate change and ecological breakdown?

The climate and ecological emergency (CEE) is impacting the natural world with increasing severity, with likely serious consequences for the Martes Complex (Guloninae) including range contraction and fragmentation, ecosystem collapse and disrupted inter-species relationships. We assessed the relative vulnerability of each species of Guloninae to the CEE based on IUCN listings, threats to preferred habitat, habitat specificity, global range size, and the nature and number of Köppen-Geiger climate zones occupied. This assessment indicated that ten of the eleven Guloninae are moderately or highly vulnerable to the impacts of the CEE, and only the stone marten Martes foina is of relatively low vulnerability. We explored biotic and abiotic factors to identify the range of known and likely impacts upon Guloninae, with deforestation and wildfires as recurring themes. Mitigation for Guloninae should focus on landscape-scale efforts to expand and connect suitable forested habitat, ideally on a north-south axis so as to facilitate predicted range shifts. In anticipation of reduced funding for wildlife research and conservation in an increasingly unstable geopolitical context, the best opportunities for mitigation will likely depend upon influencing the forestry industry and national carbon capture reforestation policies.