Ecological restoration priority on the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau based on the nature’s contributions to people under SDGs-SSPs scenarios

• Grassland, forest and cultivated land will increase in the SDG-SSP scenarios. • Ecological restoration region involves grassland, cultivated land and unused land. • The high priority areas are located in the southeastern part on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Ecological restoration is considered an important way to mitigate ecosystem degradation and improve regional nature’s contributions to people (NCPs). Ecological planning is a prerequisite for ecological restoration and the prevention of future ecological risks. However, few studies have focused on integrating ecological plans within the framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, taking the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau (QXP) as a case, we assessed ecological restoration priorities based on nature’s contributions to people (NCPs) under various SDGs and SSP scenarios. Specifically, the land use demand was predicted using system dynamics (SD) and cellular automata (CA) models between 2030 and 2060 under SDG-SSP scenarios. In addition, habitat maintenance (NCP1), climate regulation (NCP4), and water quantity regulation (NCP6) were assessed based on the predicted land use. Finally, priority areas for ecological restoration were identified using a zonation model. The results indicated that the grassland, forest, and cultivated areas will increase in the SDGs and SSPs scenarios, respectively. The high-value NCP areas are mainly located in the southeast part of the QXP, accounting for 45.16 % of the study area. In addition, the ecological restoration area involves grassland, cultivated and bare land. Corresponding to the single-objective scenario, NCP1, NCP4, and NCP6 can be improved 30.29 %, 28.75 % and 25.63 %, respectively, by restoring 15.33 % of the priority areas in 2015. When shifting to a multi-objective cooperative optimum, NCP1, NCP4 and NCP6 can be improved 35.79 % by restoring 54.96 % of the priority areas. This study provides insight into how SDGs and SSPs can contribute to ecological restoration for mitigating ecosystem degradation under SDG-SSP scenarios.