Forecasting medical waste generation and estimating waste to energy potentials with associated greenhouse gas emissions: A holistic analysis

• Assessment of medical waste generation and associated energy content in Türkiye. • Medical waste generation to be between 130 and 730 thousand tons in 2040. • Average annual per capita medical waste generation in 2040 could be 2.75 kg. • In 2040 energy worth equal to 206.5 million m 3 of natural gas from medical waste. Three novel semi-empirical models are generated in this study to forecast Türkiye’s medical waste (MW) generation till 2040 based on different scenarios. Scenarios for models 1 to 3 provides a spectrum of data that covers potential stagnancy, exponential and linear rise scenarios for MW generation till 2040. All models alluded high goodness of fit and accuracy based on RMSE, MAPE (%), R 2 and residual analysis values. Model 3 is deemed as the best fit among them. Türkiye’s average MW generation in 2040 is forecasted to be 380 thousand tons and energy worth equal to the consumption of 206.5 million m 3 of natural gas (NG) could be produced if all the combustible portion of MW, which is 92 % of the total, is collected and incinerated. It is also estimated that from incineration of MW energy worth equal to 0.13–0.21 % of Türkiye’s annual NG consumption valued at 26.2–77.4 million US$ could be generated between 2022 and 2040. In 2040, if all the MW generated is collected and further processed for energy generation theoretical NO x , CO, and SO 2 emissions from Tier 2 uncontrolled air and Tier 1 rotary kiln incineration are estimated as nearly 680, 570, 420 and 980, 8, 120 tons, respectively. Lastly, this study could be used as a basis for estimating MW generation in different countries with associated energy equivalence analysis and GHG emission calculations.