Vegetation restoration slowdown in desertification control zones of China around the 2010s

• Evaluating shifts in vegetation restoration trends and their drivers in Desertification Control Zones of China. • The recovery trend of vegetation began to slow down in DCZ after 2011. • Climatic factors have caused the slowdown in vegetation recovery after 2011. • Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors slowing down vegetation recovery. • Human activities have had a stable positive impact on vegetation recovery. Since 2000, China has invested over RMB 300 billion in large-scale ecological restoration projects in northern China to combat desertification. Over the past two decades, significant progress has been achieved in vegetation restoration, particularly in key areas such as Erdos, Nunkiang, and Horqin. However, is the trend of vegetation restoration in the Desertification Control Zones (DCZ) increasing continuously? What are the driving factors for the change in the vegetation restoration trend? Existing research has not yet reached a definitive conclusion on this matter. To figure out the changes and drivers of vegetation recovery trends, we assessed shifts in vegetation trends within the DCZ over the period 2000–2023 using Pettitt’s test and residual trend analysis based on fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and climate data. The results indicate that: The recovery trend of FVC in the DCZ began to slow down since 2012; The FVC recovery trend was 0.208 %yr −1 from 2000 to 2011, then slowed to 0.065 %yr −1 after 2011. Climatic factors caused the slowdown in FVC recovery; the average contribution of climatic factors to FVC recovery in the DCZ was 0.071 %yr −1 before 2011 and declined to −0.086 % yr −1 after 2011. Precipitation (−0.049 %yr −1 ) and temperature (−0.026 %yr −1 ) exhibited the most substantial negative effects after 2011. Human activities have had a stable positive impact on FVC recovery, contributing 0.137 %yr −1 before 2011 and 0.151 %yr −1 after 2011. The negative impact of climate change on vegetation recovery should be considered in desertification control practice. Future desertification control practices should be based on natural conditions to ensure the continued effectiveness of investments.