Exploration of the pathway from teacher expectations of pupils’ likelihood of university study to actual leaver destinations

This article considers expectations and outcomes for a cohort of 617 thirteen to fourteen-year-old school pupils and eight teachers, sampled from eight secondary schools in Scotland where many children were from relatively low socioeconomic backgrounds. Interviews with teachers revealed that they expected relatively low numbers of the pupils in this cohort to progress to Higher Education. Teacher estimates and actual leaver destinations were considerably lower than the pupils’ own expectations for university or their perception of their favourite teacher’s expectation of university study for them, obtained through pupil questionnaire. It is widely believed that teacher expectations lead to pupil outcomes via a route that involves pupil perception of teacher expectations; however, questionnaire data suggested that the pupils were largely unaware of their teachers’ relatively low expectations for them. Interviews suggested a possible pathway linking teacher behaviour to pupil outcomes through use of elite ability and university-track groups, which were offered at an early opportunity to students with potential. Although the data collected do not allow a causal link to be determined, the paper proposes a possible relationship between belonging to these groups and actual leaver destinations and ends with implications for policy and practice.