Study on the Impact of National Comprehensive Big Data Pilot Zone on Digital Economy—Perspectives Based on Panel Data from 31 Provinces in China

随着数字化进程的演进，国家大数据综合试验区作为数据要素市场化配置的重要政策工具，对数字经济发展的影响具有显著的研究价值。本文基于2013~2023年中国31个省份的面板数据，构建包含基础设施建设、数字经济规模、科技创新投入和社会经济结构分配的四维指标体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法测度各省份数字经济发展水平，并探究试验区的设立对数字经济水平的影响。研究发现：第一，数字经济呈现“东强西弱”的空间非均衡格局；第二，试验区的设立对试点省份数字经济发展水平有正向促进作用，且政策效应随时间推移持续增强；第三，区位异质性分析表明，东部试验区展现最强政策红利，中部呈现均衡性追赶特征，西部则受限于基础设施与创新要素制约，试验区与非试验区的绝对差距较大。第四，数字政府服务能力的提升有助于加速数字经济发展，并在试验区政策的支持下表现出更强的推动效应。研究揭示，试验区政策需结合区域特征差异进行优化设计，强化东部创新引领与中西部基础设施补短板协同，进一步提升中低水平地区的政府数字化治理能力，为破解数字鸿沟、推动全域协调发展提供政策启示。With the evolution of the digitalization process, the impact of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone on the development of the digital economy, as an important policy tool for the market-based allocation of data elements, has significant research value. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2023, this paper constructs a four-dimensional indicator system including infrastructure construction, digital economy scale, science and technology innovation investment and socio-economic structure allocation, measures the level of digital economy development of each province by using the entropy weight-TOPSIS method, and explores the impact of the establishment of the pilot zone on the level of the digital economy. The study finds that: firstly, the digital economy shows a spatial imbalance pattern of “strong in the east and weak in the west”; secondly, the establishment of the pilot area has a positive promotion effect on the level of digital economy development in the pilot provinces, and the policy effect continues to increase over time; thirdly, the analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that the eastern pilot area shows the strongest policy dividend, the central area shows a balanced catching-up characteristic, and the western region is limited by infrastructure and innovation factors, with a large absolute gap between the test areas and the non-test areas. Fourthly, the enhancement of digital government service capability helps accelerate the development of digital economy and shows a stronger promoting effect with the support of pilot zone policies. The study reveals that the policies of the pilot zones need to be optimally designed by combining the differences in regional characteristics, strengthening the synergy between the innovation leadership in the east and the shortcomings of infrastructure in the central and western parts of the country, and further enhancing the digital governance capacity of governments in low- and medium-level regions, so as to provide policy insights for cracking the digital divide and promoting the coordinated development of the whole region.