Application of Limit State Function Method to Statisitcal Analysis of Ballistic Penetration

Abstract For the risk evaluation of penetration caused by flying objects onto steel plates, the assessment of penetration probability is required. One simple method to evaluate the penetration probability when given the penetration formula together with the statistical properties of related random parameters is to apply Monte Carlo simulation (MC). However, in risk assessment cases, it is necessary to evaluate extremely small probabilities such as 10-4 or 10-6. To accurately perform this level of evaluation with MC, an enormous number of trial runs is re-quired, making it highly inefficient for conducting systematic risk management considerations. In this paper, we apply the Limit State Function Method (LSFM) to evaluate the penetration probability of flying objects on steel plates. We will show that, compared to the MC method, LSFM allows for a significantly smaller computational time while keeping accuracy even for the low probability values required in risk assessment. After simple explanation of LSFM formulation, we discuss the object-oriented software development. The computational time and the accuracy of evaluation will be discussed. The introduction of object-oriented programming demonstrates the efficient incorporation of numerous penetration formulas, showcasing a system development case that integrates 11 penetration formulas including the BRL formula.