Creation of Lethal Debris from Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Impacts on Leo Solar Array Materials

Abstract This study interrogates how impacts from untracked orbital debris and meteoroids on solar array materials generate lethal debris in low Earth orbit (LEO). Physics-based simulations of impactors on a solar array substrate provide rich data on possible debris impact conditions and the resulting debris generation. The probability of possible impact conditions is derived from existing catalogs, Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) and Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), to infer the likelihood of each debris-generating event. Based on detailed simulation data and the likelihood of each simulated event, we speculate on the impact conditions that would rapidly proliferate lethal orbital debris. This work includes debris generation from solar array strikes from both orbital debris and meteoroid impactors.