Spatial characteristics analysis and prediction of precipitation based on ARIMA model

Based on the overview of ARIMA model, this paper uses SPSS22.0 statistical software to draw the annual precipitation of a place, analyze the spatial characteristics of local precipitation, and compare the predicted results with the measured values. It is found that the annual variation trend of the predicted value is basically consistent with the actual precipitation trend, which can well reflect the spatial characteristics of local precipitation, and can be used for short-term precipitation prediction and trend analysis. When the ARIMA model is used to forecast the annual rainfall, the prediction method of real-time correction year by year is adopted to forecast the short and medium term rainfall as long as the data series are sufficient, so as to avoid the increase of forecasting deviation caused by too long forecasting period.