A VECM-Based Analysis of Determinants Affecting the Application for Leasehold Registration Orders : Focusing on foreign landlords

Although the large-scale issue of jeonse deposit non-return emerged as a significant social problem nationwide in 2022, incidents involving foreign landlords failing to return deposits have been largely overlooked. According to data from HUG, the amount of guaranteed accidents involving foreign landlords increased from 500 million KRW in 2021 to 5.3 billion KRW in 2023. However, once these landlords return to their home countries, there is no effective means of recovering the deposit, meaning the resulting losses are likely to be entirely borne by the tenants and the guarantee institutions. Therefore, research on this issue is necessary. Accordingly, this study conducted an empirical analysis using the total number of leasehold registration orders as the dependent variable, and selected the exchange rate, the number of fixed-date lease registrations involving foreign landlords, jeonse supply-demand trends, and the apartment sales price index as independent variables. The analysis revealed that the exchange rate and the number of lease registrations with fixed dates showed a positive (+) relationship with the number of leasehold registration orders, while the trends in jeonse supply and demand and the apartment sales price index exhibited a negative (−) relationship with the number of leasehold registration orders. The number of lease registrations with fixed dates involving foreign landlords was found to be the most influential variable affecting leasehold registration orders. As the number of foreign landlords increases and the volume of rental properties managed by foreigners grows, there is a positive relationship with the issuance of leasehold registration orders. Therefore, it is important for the central and local governments to closely monitor areas where the number of lease registrations with fixed dates involving foreign landlords is increasing. This includes proactively collecting and maintaining information on multi-home landlords, immigration records, and capital status, in order to exercise greater caution and oversight.