Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria

This is the first study to examine how Nigerian output is affected by the news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index by Tumala et al. (2023) and Climate Uncertainty Index by Salisu et al. (2023). Using ARDL and Granger causality on quarterly data from 2016Q2 to 2024Q1, the findings show that increased economic and climate uncertainties result in decreased output. Additionally, the study reveals that climate uncertainty has a more significant effect on output compared to economic policy uncertainty. The Granger causality indicates one-way causality from climate uncertainty to output, thereby reinforcing the substantial influence of climate uncertainty on output in Nigeria.