An Integrated Assessment of Climatic and Non-Climatic Determinants of Wheat Production and Food Security in Pakistan

Wheat is a staple crop in Pakistan and its production is directly linked with ensuring national food security. Pakistan is amongst the top ten counties which have been adversely affected by climate change. The wheat yield heavily depends on the climate variability and farmers’ economic constraints. This study was carried out to integrate climatic and economic variables into a single analytical model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The data from 1995 to 2024 was derived from secondary sources of Government of Pakistan. The model showed highest robustness and withstood necessary validation. The model captured both short-run and long-run relationships between wheat production and key variables such as temperature, rainfall, water availability, and fertilizer use. The results indicated that in the short run, water availability and fertilizer use had the most significant positive effect on wheat production while excessive rainfall showed a delayed negative impact. In the long run, all variables positively influenced wheat production, yet water availability and fertilizer use played the most critical role. These findings underscored the importance of effective water management and input optimization in maintaining and improving wheat yields under changing climatic conditions. It was recommended that the irrigation efficiency may be enhanced along with promotion of timely and balanced fertilizer application. The climate-smart practices such as use of drought-resistant varieties and precision farming may also be encouraged by the government. Meanwhile, supporting research and policy development were deemed to be essential for building resilience and ensuring long-term food security.