Dynamic evolution of the NDVI and driving factors in the Mu Us Sandy Land of China from 2002 to 2021

Abstract Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation and its response mechanisms to natural and anthropogenic elements is crucial for regional vegetation restoration and ecological preservation. The Mu Us Sandy Land (MUSL), which is situated in the semi-arid zone of northwestern China adjacent to the Loess Plateau, has been at the forefront of desertification and oasis formation over the past two millennia. This study is based on the synthesis of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from MOD13A3 data in the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) dataset (2002–2021) and climate data (temperature and precipitation) at annual and monthly scales from the National Earth System Science Data Center. A range of analytical methods, including univariate linear regression, Theil-Sen trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test, correlation analysis, residual analysis, and Hurst index, were used to explore the response mechanisms of the NDVI to climate change and human activities and to predict the future trends of the NDVI in the MUSL. The results showed that through the method of correlation analysis, in terms of both spatially averaged correlation coefficients and area proportion, the NDVI was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation in 97.59% and 96.51% of the study area, respectively, indicating that temperature has a greater impact on the NDVI than precipitation. Residual analysis quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to the NDVI changes, revealing that climate change and human activities contribute up to 30.00% and 70.00%, respectively, suggesting that human activities predominantly affect the NDVI changes in the MUSL. The Hurst index was used to categorize the future trend of the NDVI into four main directions of development: continuous degradation (0.05% of the study area), degradation in the past but improvement in the future (54.45%), improvement in the past but degradation in the future (0.13%), and continuous improvement (45.36%). In more than 50.00% of the regions that have been degraded in the past but were expected to improve in the future, the NDVI was expected to exhibit a stable trend of anti-persistent improvement. These findings provide theoretical support for future ecological protection, planning, and the implementation of ecological engineering in the MUSL, and also offer a theoretical basis for the planning and execution of construction projects, environmental protection measures, and the sustainable development of vegetation.