Climate-induced Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and Nature-based Risk Management Approach in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

The glaciated region of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) has become highly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate, coupled with the region's need for sustainable development. The increase in the frequency of climate and flooding-related calamities in recent decades demands more proactive strategies to combat floods and other extreme weather disasters in the region. This paper focuses on evaluating climate dynamics, GLOF risks, and nature-based risk management strategies for sustainable development in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya (HKH) region of the UIB, Pakistan. The mean annual rainfall exhibited an increase from 670 to 686 mm (2.4%) in the Hindu Kush, from 210 to 281 mm (33.8%) in the Karakoram, and from 737 to 798 mm (8.3%) in the Himalaya range during the 1960-2019 period. The majority of glacier-fed lakes in the Karakoram and Himalaya indicated an expansion in lake area. Climate change has influenced the cryosphere regime, leading to the frequent occurrence of flash floods/GLOF events resulting in environmental degradation, loss of infrastructure, property, and valuable lives downstream. Effective nature-based flood risk management needs to be promoted by preserving the natural ecosystem, enhancing its health, and strengthening the response capacity of vulnerable communities in the region. Launching afforestation and reforestation projects might help absorb shocks from flood hazards, reduce flood runoff, sediment loads, and socio-economic susceptibility. It is essential to promote good practices of NBS in flood risk management through raising awareness, demonstration, and initiating educational programs. Capacity building of local communities and institutions through resource sharing, skills transfer, and enhanced knowledge dissemination is crucial to improve flood risk mitigation in vulnerable areas of the region. For effective GLOF risk management, local communities must be involved in the development of NBS measures at the policy level.