Quantitative Estimation of Factors Influencing Inflation Dynamics in Russia in the Period 2009-2022

The article presents a quantitative correlation of monetary and non-monetary factors and the extent of their influence on the inflation rate in Russia in the period from 2009 to 2022. The price dynamics was estimated using the consumer price index (by category) and the GDP deflator. Econometric analysis of inflation dependence on various factors was carried out on the basis of quarterly data. The purpose of the study is to test the hypothesis that during crises in Russia the role of non-monetary factors dominates, but gradually their influence wears off and the role of monetary factors becomes stronger. The period under study from 2009 to 2022 is a difficult and recessive period for the Russian economy. It is connected with the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and large-scale financial and economic sanctions of the last three years. Therefore, separate calculations were carried out for the time period 2009-2019. A comparative analysis of the factors that influenced inflation was carried out for both periods. The results of the calculations showed that the share of non-monetary factors rises for the consumer price index for food and services in 2009-2022 to about 75 %. The share of monetary factors for the overall CPI drops to 50 % between 2009 and 2022, although it was 67 % in the period from 2009 to 2019. The nature of the monetary factors in the two periods differs markedly for both the CPI and the GDP deflator. In 2009-2022, the inflation dynamics was affected by the growth of the MIACR rate, while the change in the real money supply turned out to be an insignificant factor. The hypothesis was proven to be valid on the whole. The calculations showed that for the period 2009-2022 non-monetary nature of inflation is preserved, at the same time the role of monetary factors in some categories is growing. For example, two thirds of the CPI for non-food products was formed by monetary factors. Among non-monetary factors, the dynamics of real GDP, tariffs of natural monopolies, as well as changes in real wages and oil prices have the greatest impact on the inflation rate. The ratio of monetary and non-monetary factors is important to consider when developing anti-inflationary measures both by the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia in terms of their short-term and long-term impact on inflation.