Passenger travel mode choice between short sea shipping and road transportation: a case from Zhoushan Archipelago (China)

Abstract The optimisation of inter-island transportation systems constitutes a critical determinant of regional economic development and the efficacy of mobility infrastructure. This study presents a comparative analysis of passenger mode selection between short-sea shipping (SSS) and road transport alternatives through stated preference surveys conducted via anonymised questionnaires. Employing advanced discrete choice modelling techniques – specifically the multinomial logit (MNL), random parameter logit (RPL) and latent class (LC) frameworks – we quantitatively disentangle the complex determinants influencing modal preferences. Our systematic sensitivity analysis reveals distinct behavioural patterns: passengers opting for SSS prioritise journey convenience, whereas road transport users exhibit stronger cost sensitivity. These findings provide actionable insights for formulating evidence-based policies to enhance intermodal transportation networks in the Zhoushan Archipelago of China. Beyond its immediate geographical focus, this research contributes methodological innovations by applying finite mixture models to capture unobserved heterogeneity in maritime transport decisions. The framework demonstrates significant transferability potential for island territories globally and urban freight corridor optimisation challenges, particularly in contexts requiring trade-off analyses between maritime efficiency and terrestrial logistics constraints.