Impact of Spatio-Temporal Variability of Droughts on Streamflow: A Remote-Sensing Approach Integrating Combined Drought Index

Understanding how spatial drought variability influences streamflow is critical for sustainable water management under changing climate conditions. This study developed a novel Combined Drought Index (CDI) and a method to assess spatial drought impacts on different flow components by integrating remote sensing and hydrological modelling frameworks with generic applicability. The CDI was constructed using Principal Component Analysis to merge multiple standardized indicators: the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Temperature Condition Index, Vegetation Condition Index, and Soil Moisture Condition Index. The developed framework was applied to the Giriulla sub-basin of the Maha Oya River Basin, Sri Lanka. The CDI strongly correlated with standardized streamflow with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.74 and successfully captured major drought and flood events between 2015 and 2023. A semi-distributed hydrological model was used to simulate streamflow variations across sub-catchments under varying drought conditions. Results show upstream sub-catchments were more sensitive to droughts, with sharper declines in specific discharge. Spatial drought variability had different impacts under high- and low-flow conditions: wetter sub-catchments contributed more during high flows, while resilience during low flows varied with catchment characteristics. This integrated approach provides a valuable framework that can be generically applicable for enhanced drought impact assessments.