A Framework for Optimal Sizing of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Considering Uncertainty

The adoption of heavy-duty electric vehicles (HDEVs) is key to achieving transportation decarbonization. A major component of this transition is the need for new supporting infrastructure: electric charging stations (CSs). HDEV CSs must be planned considering charging requirements, economic constraints, the rollout plan for HDEVs, and local utility grid conditions. Together, these considerations highly differentiate HDEV CS planning from light-duty CS planning. This paper addresses the challenges of HDEV CS planning by presenting a framework for determining the optimal sizing of multiple HDEV CSs using a multi-period expansion model. The framework uses historical data from depots and applies a mixed-approach optimization solver to determine the optimal sizes of two types of CSs: one that relies entirely on power generated by a PV system with local battery storage, and another that relies entirely on utility grid power supply. A two-layer uncertainty model is proposed to account for variations in PV power generation, HDEV arrival/departure times, and charger failures. The multi-period expansion strategy achieves up to a 78% reduction in total annual costs during the first deployment period, compared to fully expanded CSs.