Estimating causal effects of extended school closures on non-cognitive factors: evidence from TIMSS and PISA

This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (2015, 2019, 2023) and PISA (2022), we apply difference-in-differences (DiD) models across two research designs: successive cross-sections of 4th-grade cohorts and a pseudo-panel following a cohort from primary to secondary school. Our findings indicate that, although school closures did not significantly affect the level of students’ self-beliefs, they did reduce the strength of the association between negative attitudes and achievement—particularly among girls and in OECD countries. The results highlight the nuanced effects of distance learning on mathematics outcomes, contributing to the literature on the role of affective-motivational factors in education.