Resilience Under Heatwaves: Croatia’s Power System During the July 2024 Heatwave and the Role of Variable Renewable Energy by 2030

This study analyzes the record electricity consumption in Croatia during the July 2024 heatwave and evaluates how the increased deployment of onshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) could mitigate a similar event in the future. Electricity demand and generation patterns under current (2024) and projected (2030) scenarios have been simulated using a sub-hourly power system model. The findings show that during the July 2024 heatwave, Croatia imported 35% of the electricity, with prices exceeding 400 €/MWh during peak hours. By 2030, the expanded wind and solar PV sectors (1.5 GW each) will increase the renewable share from 38.8% in July 2024 to 54.7% in July 2030. On the annual level, renewable energy generation increases from 53.8% in 2024 up to 66.9% in 2030. As result, the carbon intensity of the power sector will reduce from 223 gCO2eq/kWhel in 2024 to 197 gCO2eq/kWhel in 2030. The share of fossil fuel generation will increase slightly, from 19.7% in 2024 to 22% in 2030, but more significantly in the summer to meet the heatwave-induced electricity demand. Besides that, short-term energy storage of 2 GWh (400 MW discharge over 5 h) could effectively manage evening peak demands after solar PV ceases production.