Habitat Suitability Dynamics of Yellow River Delta Nature Reserves for Rare Waterbirds

Coastal wetland degradation continues to threaten the stability and ecological function of rare waterbird habitats, highlighting the need for a multi-species, long-term habitat assessment framework. This study examines the YRDNR using an integrated approach that combines MaxEnt and HSI models, high-resolution Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data, and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation to assess habitat dynamics for five rare waterbird species from 2005 to 2024. The key findings include the following: (1) The total wetland area first declined, then increased, with natural wetlands decreasing and artificial wetlands expanding. (2) Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) emerged as the primary factor influencing habitat suitability, with species-specific environmental responses. (3) Habitats for Ciconia boyciana, Larus saundersi, Grus japonensis, and Numenius madagascariensis declined and then recovered, while the Cygnus olor’s habitat steadily expanded. Habitat fragmentation increased for Larus saundersi and Numenius madagascariensis, while patch size and connectivity improved for Ciconia boyciana, Grus japonensis, and Cygnus olor. (4) Overall, the suitable habitat area of rare waterbird increased, accompanied by a structural shift from natural to artificial wetlands. The proposed framework supports the long-term monitoring and precise management of coastal wetlands, offering valuable insights for global waterbird conservation and sustainable wetland governance.