Analysing a Multi-Criteria Analysis to Prioritise Munition Piles in the German Baltic Sea for Remediation

Abstract. In the aftermath of World War II, significant amounts of munitions were dumped into the German coastal waters. These unremedied munitions harbour various risks. The Multi-Criteria Analysis for Dumped Munition Prioritisation (MCA-DuMP) was developed as part of the efforts of the CONMAR project and enables the prioritisation of these munitions for remediation. To better understand the formation and structure of these prioritisation results, a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) was conducted. As part of this analysis, two approaches to SA, VARS and PAWN, were applied to three input/output series obtained using different sampling strategies. The results of this SA were used to identify influential factors and to rank the factors according to their influence on the prioritisation results. Both aspects are helpful to decision makers as they enable them to better assess and categorise the prioritisation results, thus allowing them to utilise the findings as best as possible in their decision-making process. They can also be utilised by the developers of MCA-DuMP to verify its behaviour.