Autonomous Supply Strategy and Substitution Modeling for Critical Components in Complex Supply Chains

Amidst the current global landscape characterized by complex and volatile supply structures, the uncertainty in the supply of critical components has emerged as a significant constraint on enterprise development. This study focuses on constructing an innovative evaluation framework that integrates system dynamics (SD) modeling with stage-based substitution strategy simulation, with the objective of accurately identifying effective pathways for achieving autonomous supply of critical components. Through detailed analysis and simulation of three key stages—collaborative development, small-batch prototyping, and large-scale substitution—the study systematically investigates the substitution timeline and capacity transition patterns of critical components. Using 23 categories of heavy industrial equipment parts as case examples, relevant parameters were comprehensively collected for model construction. Simulation results reveal marked differences under various implementation pathways and strategy combinations. The proposed model demonstrates potential for integration with enterprise ERP systems, and is expected to provide robust quantitative early-warning support for the localization and substitution processes of essential materials.