The Decline in the Return on Education for Wages at the Regional Level in Post-Pandemic Brazil

This study examines the return on education for wages in Brazil at the regional level during the period following the coronavirus pandemic. We applied the two-stage methodology developed by heckman (1979) to quarterly data from the PNAD Contínua from 2018 to 2023. The results reveal that although educational returns in Brazil remain high, there is evidence of a structural change in the country after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in a noticeable reduction in the return on education for wage levels. A regional analysis showed that the North and Northeast regions experienced an even sharper decline in educational returns.