Estimation of the impact of the new high-speed rail in Japan from a spatial economic perspective

The development of intercity transportation systems can significantly impact regional economies and national land structures. This study offers a model to evaluate the effects of new high speed rail systems on economic and population structures based on spatial economics (also called new economic geography), which has rapidly developed in terms of theory and computational methods in recent years. We apply the current model to the new Japanese high-speed rail project, SCMAGLEV, and estimate the short and long run economic effects on population distribution. The results of the short run analysis are generally consistent with the intuitive expectation that large effects will be generated mainly in the areas around Tokyo and Osaka, which are the terminals of SCMAGLEV. In contrast to the trend in the spatial distribution of benefits in the short run equilibrium, the population is expected to decline in many regions in the long run. The long run results suggest that population agglomeration can develop in limited areas of the country. • A novel multiregional economic model based on spatial economics is developed. • The application study quantitatively estimates the impact of the SCMAGLEV project. • The project will improve welfare in most regions of Japan. • Regions without new HSR terminal stations will experience population decline.